day three - afternoon

[guestcontrol]

dreamland day three 34 players remaining. [As the day wears on into the afternoon, the dead aren't getting any deader. It's late in the afternoon, and the air is beginning to cool, when the chimes play again over the park loudspeaker. "All of us here at Dreamland wish you luck, guests! Let's meet up in the Hall of Mirrors!" Wherever you are, it's time to make your way over to the House of Horrors, where you'll have to brave the funhouse to find the room on the top floor. Don't delay, or your guest identification bracelet will begin beeping. The House of Mirrors is a large room, more than capable of fitting a crowd. Tall mirrors line every wall, and the door you entered through seems to vanish into a mirror as well. The mirrors give the impression that many, many more are among your number, standing in the background. In the back is a jar filled with blank raffle tickets. You'll have to take a ticket, write down a name, and place it back in the jar. Hopefully you already know who you're voting for, but if not, you only have time for a brief discussion before you're out of time. rulebook character statuses private conversations graveyard Voting will close at 10 PM EST on September 30. Voting

Comments

[edealistical]

[It’s clear what will happen here unless she makes a stand for herself. Even then, she knows, her opponent has so easily captured the trust of those around her without even so much as proving himself... It will be an onerous task, but she has never shrunk from a fight before.]

I’ll be serving as my own defense today, I think. It’s obvious that Missile has chosen to accuse me... but I will stand by my belief that I am innocent.

[Edea will... literally stand.]

There are two possibilities that would explain his actions. The first is simple – that I am guilty. This is a possibility I won’t deny, for it’s clear that our common enemy has proven themselves capable of altering memory and feats of magic. If this is so, then I rightly deserve to hang.

I’m here to propose the second, which I believe to be more likely. Before you all openly denounce me, let me remind you that thus far, all Missile has done is cause the death of Levi, someone we know now to be innocent. I'm here to ask why.

...Let’s go back to our first trial. After the votes came in, Levi presented his claim that he was the Detective, that he had investigated Legion, and that Legion was guilty. At the time, we were skeptical, but we were willing to believe him. Why so? Because no one stood to challenge him. Our true detective, however, as we know now, was not Levi... but Missile. Who must have understood and realized what Levi was saying, because we know that early the next morning, he set a plan in motion to denounce Levi.

Let me ask 'why' again. Missile could have attacked Levi the moment he made his claim – actually, this is probably what many people might have done in the heat of the moment. But Missile was smart. He kept silent. Because, of course... he wanted to investigate Levi. Isn’t that what the Detective would do? There was no harm in waiting to act because no one would be executed until the following day. Levi could claim whatever he liked until then - there was ample time. It would be stupid for Missile to out himself without knowing Levi’s intentions, which was, perhaps, to openly goad forth the Detective.

I am sure Missile investigated Levi that night. He would have found him to be innocent. He would have, no doubt, been utterly confused... but at the very least, it would have been clear that Levi was not directly his enemy.

This is where things get strange.

Missile knows Levi is innocent – I think Levi was relying on this, too. That the Detective would investigate him and find him to be innocent and that they would contact him to form the beginnings of a plan. However, Missile does not. ...Missile fails to do anything directly until an hour or two before the end of the trial. What does he do instead? He plants the seeds of suspicion in K and Aya... and then accuses Levi so late in the trial that it was impossible for Levi to defend himself in any meaningful way. He allows the charade to go on so long... that it's too late.

In fact – Missile’s actions could only have resulted in one thing! Levi’s execution – the execution of someone he should have known to be innocent! Missile didn’t speak up during breakfast or start growling and barking at Levi early on to force him to explain himself... He didn’t try to indicate Levi’s innocence in any way. A dog’s natural response should not be to wait for 8 hours and to plant obscure clues! Dogs aren't exactly patient creatures.

Why did Missile behave the way he did? Dogs don’t like melodrama – it wouldn’t be for the thrill or the adrenaline of it. The only reason Missile would have acted that way... is if he was instructed to do so.

[Edea will pause now, because this is where things will go off the hook.]

The night after Levi first made his claim, Missile was chosen as the convert by the VIPs!

Do you think that ridiculous? Look at what Missile has accomplished in the space of a day – every single one of you believes in him despite the fact that he hasn’t even pointed out a single guilty party yet! In short, there was nobody better that night for the VIPs to convert. In the absence of knowing any roles... every person here was more or less equal – all except for one. Missile... is the one person in this game that has been above suspicion. The only way the VIPs can lose is if every single one of them is killed – and nobody would be so callous as to push for the dog’s death!

The VIPs never ever thought that Missile was the Detective. That must have been an incredible stroke of luck... But when they did, they realized they had a golden opportunity. His ability didn't matter for them – they already know who’s guilty and who’s innocent. But now they could have everybody believing in a Detective... who was already on their side. Their greatest opposition was gone.

Thus, the same night Missile discovered Levi was innocent, he was converted. The VIPs needed Missile to act exactly the way he did... so as to cause Levi’s death and to gain Missile the trust of everyone here.

And actually... I believe there could be another reason that they needed Levi to die.

[Edea’s gaze turns now to fall on somebody else in the room.]

To protect the person who would have certainly been executed that very night in Levi’s stead.

What is more likely? That Levi would sacrifice his life for a complete fabrication... or that for some unknown reason, he had cause to believe that Legion really was VIP?

What is more likely? That Missile, knowing Levi was innocent, set a series of actions into motion that could have resulted in nothing but Levi’s death... or that he, as the Detective and the one tasked with finding the VIPs, would have tried to protect Levi still... or at least, tried to understand his actions? Instead of attempting to communicate the whole truth earlier that day... he waited – he was instructed to wait – until the very end, when it would be too late.

[She seems to have reached the end of her argument.]

This is the only logical conclusion I can reach about what’s happening... I have... actually, one more suspicion that I believe would answer many more questions... but I don’t know yet if it is right to say.

I don’t want to accuse anyone openly here or send anyone innocent to their death – but this is what I must believe to be true, knowing what I know about my own role. I can find no logical inconsistencies about this statement... so... it has to be true.

...I'm sorry to say this of you, Legion. ...And Missile. But if this is not true, then... I...

...That’s all.

((Will not be around stably until 6 or 7, sorry!))

[shoutoku_administrator]

This is a bold and fascinating theory, Miss Lee. By your argument, today's question is whether to execute you or Legion.

Allow me to start with a simple question: Do you believe that this dog would be both capable of understanding instructions to lie about Levi's guilt and willing to comply?

[murimurimuri]

Ah... not to interrupt, but it's technically possible to train a dog to bark at certain people or words, and to growl at others...

[edealistical]

Concerning the latter first - I do not believe there is anyone in this 'game' who could not operate as any of the roles. It wouldn't make any sense to bring in someone who couldn't be a VIP. Whatever is being levied to ensure compliance with the actions of the VIP would be just as effective as Missile, I am sure.

As for instructions about lying, being trained to bark at a particular time isn't so impossible.

[There is a moment's hesitation as if she's about to say more, but she'll glance at Simon.]

A skilled trainer and an intelligent dog would be capable of it, I believe.

[billows]

... It didn't seem like you were the type. I did find that whole scene strange, we so quickly turned on Levi—that dog is charismatic; he would be a good convert.

[edealistical]

I would hope that nobody here is 'of the type'. It seems to me there is something more about the VIPs that we do not yet understand.

[She will nod.]

Missile... As I said, I am sure that, consciously or not, nobody has seriously considered him as VIP. But he is one of the 42 players all the same.

[glasshole]

Oh.

That's an unexpectedly cogent theory. Though it does put a lot of emphasis on the capacity of a dog to be a rational actor.

[edealistical]

Yes... This is why I believe it's important to consider how a dog would act in the absence of instructions.

Whether or not it's likely that Missile would be rational enough to refrain from immediately accosting Levi, it's a fact that he did. However, it's his actions afterwards that appear to be decidedly... un-animalistic. He was clearly not afraid of Levi - everyone saw how enthusiastically he spoke against him. So why the 'clues' with the pictures and why the wait? Only when you consider the end result does it make sense.

The clues, it seems likely, were planted by someone else. Missile wouldn't have been capable of that much training. Consider, too, that K and Aya did not see who it was who passed notes under the door... but immediately came to the conclusion during the trial that it was Missile. And that must be the explanation for the clues - so as to fool them into thinking they had drawn their own conclusions.

[photoshot]

We'll have to confirm with Mr. Missile if he really did investigate Mr. Levi or not. My understanding was that he hadn't been trying to accuse him of being VIP, just of not being the detective.

[edealistical]

...Ah.

I do not believe it likely he would tell the truth if my accusations are correct. And as for your point, I don't believe that's relevant more than what the end result was - that Levi was executed.

[belgian]

I asked him during the trial if he investigated Levi and he made it pretty clear he hadn't, I think! [As clear as a dog can make it.] I didn't see Missile around when Levi was claiming to be the detective after the first trial, either.

[godwhisperer]

Why should one prepared to die worry about the consequences? Nothing is right or wrong to say, so say what you will.

[edealistical]

[She had expected he would understand.]

You understand the suspicions I would have if my theories were true, of course. There are two people here more suited to carrying out this plan than the rest of us.

Yourself, described as a 'taming prodigy', and Mr. Keyes, who has tamed a pet monkey.

That is all I meant. But it is not a necessity for what I am proposing.

[paws_and_rewind]

[ What a long speech!

...It's impressively long and passionate, so he'll respect her enough not to interrupt, and he doesn't quite understand all those complicated words and turns of phrase, but...

HE REALLY DOESN'T LIKE IT! It sounds like she's trying to tell people that he's a VIP and she isn't, and she has all those words to do it with, and all he can do about it is bark! That's not fair! ]

[edealistical]

You will be defended amply by the others here. Do not fear... I would not allow them to turn against you with no consideration for your words.

I do not seek to impugn you for no reason, but you understand that this is the only alternative to your accusation.

[talking to the dog like he understands everything is the way to go here clearly]

[jingler]

I will admit Edea, your logic is sound. However it unfortunately hinges on Missile being converted. As Malik was the only one to die the night before, it means a 1 in 41 chance that Missile was chosen and that's including the person or persons protected by the Conversion Busters that night. It's a very minuscule chance and it has so far been the only opportunity for a conversion.

[edealistical]

That's assuming that the chance for conversion is equal for everybody. I believe that's a fallacious assumption. What traits do you or I have that distinguish us from the others?

...Well, actually, you're quite intelligent, but - the majority of us weren't important in the least at the end of the first trial. But as I said, Missile is actually an excellent candidate for conversion... in that even if he were the last VIP left, who would truly suspect him?

[chronic]

It's certainly a theory. I don't think if I'd place that much mental complexity on the dog, but...

Or maybe all three of you are VIPs and working against us, and by sacrificing just one of you- whether it's you or Missile- the remaining person gets to earn our trust just like that. Right? One of you dies for the sake of the team.

[unbridledjoy]

There is one thing that I do not understand... They must have known that we would most likely not go another day without choosing someone to execute. It would have been their only guaranteed chance of converting someone... why choose a dog?

Your explanation makes sense if we assume that they converted Missile, but it does not explain why they chose him out of everyone else to convert. Is it not more likely that Missile merely did not know how to communicate with us right away, and when he tried to tell us that Levi was not the detective, we all assumed that he was a VIP and executed him?

[cheats]

[ When Edea starts speaking, Ciel watches her with a mildly disgruntled expression, but as she works her way through the logic, his frown softens somewhat. It doesn't completely disappear (since it rarely does), but it's clear that this isn't a train of thought that he'd thought of. ]

I suppose this is possible. But for better or worse, Missile is the most credible person we have now, and has named you. You're likely t be hanged for that alone, you realize.

[ His voice is harsh, but not angry. It's very controlled and cool. ]

So it's a matter of whose word to trust, and while I would rather soundly say neither, this does stink rather wretchedly of desperation. It's well thought out, that's true, but why would these VIPs pick a dog, of all things? The rulebook implies they get to pick, but I would think nearly any other choice wiser.

[foetida]

I don't get why you think we'd be more willing to kill a human than a dog. [Nanami Kiryuu ace animal murderer]

What's your last suspicion? You might as well say it now. It's not like you'll be able to if you're executed.

[belgian]

Missile never claimed to have investigated Levi, actually! I asked him and he said he hadn't. [As much as Missile can, anyway.] I think claiming to falsely be the detective is pretty suspicious on its own--it's not something you'd think an innocent person would do without at least talking it over with the actual detective first.

1/2

[ionicwoman]

If the first thing the VIPs did was convert a dog, then they're stupider than I thought

[crueltobekind]

You've really put a lot of thought into this . . .

[royalizing]

[ Natalia selfishly wants to believe in Edea. Because she's the first person Natalia met here, and they even played carnival games together to win prizes for the sake of defeating the VIPs.

It feels so unreal that she could be a VIP herself. But... Natalia listens intently, and forces herself to try and think things through. No matter what, she doesn't want to execute another innocent. ]

... But what about the Buddy Cops? Once Missile made his claim as the detective, surely the first thing they would do is check to make sure he was telling the truth, especially after we found out that Levi was in fact innocent. If their results showed he was a VIP, they would have spoken up immediately.