[ Hearing it in such plain terms, Ciel just grimaces more, but after a moment seemingly to let that sink in, he nods ]

...This is really happening.

[ He had hoped it was a joke, but then sighs as he shakes his head. He's the Queen's Watchdog. He can't falter because of some ridiculous game, even if it's macabre. ]

I agree with your logic, though. Striking randomly would probably be the best strategy for them, but that doesn't make it any easier for us... [ kind of the opposite ] If that were the case, it may as well be accidental for all it matters to us, it seems like.